USA - Velkommen til FOREX Bank

Moving to New Zealand (Auckland CBD) from the USA for 2 yrs. Bank I have charges forex and foreign ATM fees. Any reccommendations on a different bank that is low on international fees?

I'll still be paid in USD from our home office, so I'll need to convert my funds. I believe that the credit union I have doesn't charge forex, nor does my BoA visa CC I don't think, but I want to be able to pull cash without difficulty.
I'm thinking I'll do an HSBC premier account (I just sold my house and plan to use the proceeds to buy another when I return, so I'll use that to meet the capital requirements).
Anyone have experience with using an online bank like Ally, or USAA internationally?
submitted by SpellingIsAhful to personalfinance [link] [comments]

10 Secrets The Trading Industry Doesn’t Want You To Know About

Today’s lesson goes to be somewhat controversial and should ruffle some feathers. I shall blow wide open and debunk tons of the knowledge you've got presumably been exposed to the present far in your trading journey.
The average trader is out there walking through a confusing and conflicting maze of data from a spread of sources including; blogs, forums, broker websites, books, e-books, courses and YouTube videos.
With of these learning resources available there's naturally getting to be some excellent and a few very bad information, but actually , there just isn’t how for many aspiring traders to understand what to concentrate to, who to concentrate to, or what information is useful and what information is non-beneficial.
I’m not getting to pretend that there's how for an aspiring trader to filter this giant sea of data composed by of these resources and mentors out there, because there simply isn’t. knowledgeable trader with 10,000 hours of experience might stand an opportunity of deciding the great from the bad and therefore the valid from the invalid. However, you, the beginner or intermediate trader simply won’t possess that filtering ability yet.
Becoming ‘Non-Average’
As traders, we concede to our instinctive feelings of social trustworthiness supported what we see and listen to , often to our extreme detriment. we frequently tend to require a leap of religion with our mentors and have a habit of taking things said to us at face value. we would like to hold close information that resonates with us and is sensible to us, especially if it’s delivered by a well-known source that we've come to understand and trust.
The ‘average trader’s brain’ is usually trying to find a shortcut due to the overwhelming desire to form money and be free. The brain wants to urge a winning result immediately with the smallest amount amount of effort possible. If you would like to ever make it as a professional trader or investor, I suggest you are doing everything you'll to avoid thinking with the ‘average trader’s brain‘ and begin being ‘non-average’. meaning becoming far more aware, thinking outside the box more and questioning and filtering the knowledge you read and watch. most significantly , slowing everything all down!
This now begs the apparent question…how does one even know what I’m close to write during this lesson is actually valid and factual? How are you able to really be sure? the reality is unless you've got followed me and my posts on this blog for an extended time and know me and know my work, then you can’t really make certain , and that i don’t expect you to easily believe it at face value. If you would like to return back and re-read this lesson during a few weeks, or a couple of months, or a couple of years, after you work out that i'm somebody worth taking note of about trading OR that i'm somebody not worth taking note of about trading, then so be it.
So with a degree of healthy skepticism, I ask you to think about the below list of eye-opening secrets that professional traders and therefore the trading industry, don’t want you to understand about or understand. I hope it helps…
Visit : توصيات الذهب اليوم
FOREX isn’t the sole market the Professionals trade
The FX market is large , with billions of dollars per day changing hands. It can cause you to great money if you recognize what you’re doing OR it can send you broke if you don’t. It’s a really popular market to trade globally, BUT it’s not the sole market the professional’s trade and it’s not always the simplest market to trade either.
A note on leverage:
The brokers and platform providers want you to trade FX on high leverage because the profit margins are very high for them. However, if you trade FX on lower leverage, the profit margins shrink dramatically for them. once you trade FX, start brooding about what can fail rather than just brooding about what can go right. I suggest avoiding stupidly high leverage like 400 to 1, as this will be very dangerous for you if the market moves quickly or experiences a price gap and your stop-loss orders aren’t executed at the worth you set. A more sensible leverage level would be 100 to 1 or 200 to 1, but any higher seems crazy. (Using an excessive amount of leverage is what wiped tons of traders out during Swiss Bank Crisis in 2015, The Brexit choose 2016 and therefore the Currency flash crash in early 2019).
Broaden your view:
Going forward, it'll serve you well in your trading career to start out watching a spread of worldwide markets including FX, Stock Indicies and Commodities. additionally to FX, I personally trade GOLD (XAUUSD), S&P500 Index USA, the SPI200 Index Australia, and therefore the Hang Seng Index Hong Kong , and sometimes individual stocks on various global exchanges. In short, there's more to the trading world than simply FX. I discuss the foremost popular markets I trade this lesson here.
Day trading isn’t what Pro trading really is
The internet is crammed with marketing trying to convince folks that the definition of a trader may be a one that spends all day actively trading in and out of the market on a brief term basis, all whilst living the life-style of a Wall St millionaire. there's a significant agenda within the industry to push this story to the masses, it's been relentless for many years .
I am yet to satisfy one successful day trader who is consistent over the future and that i have almost 25,000 students and 250,000 readers on this blog. i'm not saying there isn’t a couple of out there, but 99.9% of the people that do this sort of trading or attempt to live up to the standard day trader stereotype are getting to fail and perhaps even harm themselves financially or mentally. Watching a screen all day and searching for trades constantly is that the like a compulsive gambler playing roulette during a casino.
The successful traders i do know of (myself included) are watching higher time frames and longer time horizons (minimum 4-hour chart timeframes and predominantly daily chart time frames). they need no restriction on how long they're looking to carry a trade for and that they tend to let the trades find them. The professionals i do know , don't day trade, they are doing not watch screens all day, they are doing not search for trades constantly. they're going to typically fall under the category of a swing trader, trend trader or position trader.
The obvious paradox and conflicting reality within the ‘day trader story’ is blatantly obvious. How does a trader who is consistently watching a screen and constantly trading have time to enjoy his life and live the lifestyle? They chose to trade as a profession to possess a life, they didn’t choose it to observe a screen 24/5.
Here are some points to think about that employment against the so-called ‘ day trader’:
The shorter the time-frame the more noise and random price movement there's , thus increasing your chance of simply being stopped out of the trade.
Your ‘trading edge’ features a higher chance of yielding a result for you if you’re not trading within the intraday noise.
The same trading edge doesn't work or produce an equivalent results on a 5 min chart compared to a Daily chart.
Commissions and spreads churn your account, therefore the more you trade the more you lose in broker platform costs. (I will mention this below)
Risk-Reward ratios aren't relative on shorter and longer time frames. Statistical average volatility across different time periods also as natural market dynamics play an enormous role during this . there's much more weight behind higher time frames than lower timeframes.
Great trades take time because the market moves slower than most of the people ever anticipate. Trading from the upper timeframes and holding trades for extended time periods will provide you with greater opportunities to ascertain trades mature into big winners. However, shorter timeframes don’t provide you with this same opportunity fairly often .
submitted by LondonForex to u/LondonForex [link] [comments]

Dollar smiles again. Forecast as of 11.11.2020

Dollar smiles again. Forecast as of 11.11.2020
While the EURUSDbulls wonder why the price isn’t rising, the bears see the reasons for a deeper correction. What’s next? Let us discuss the Forex outlook and make up a EURUSD trading plan.

Monthly US dollar fundamental forecast

It is impossible to predict market trends. The market is unpredictable; it can always surprise us. The EURUSD bulls are surprised because the pair doesn’t grow. There should be several reasons for the euro growth. Joe Biden has won the US presidential election; there is positive news about the COVID-19 vaccines. Investors should have started selling the dollar. However, the greenback remains strong, encouraging traders to buy the USD.
Jefferies notes that the USD closed in the red zone six months out of the last seven, having been down by 11%. The dollar’s surge on November 9 proves that most of the negative had been priced in the quotes, and the greenback will hardly start falling now. The central bank in Europe and Asia, which compete with the Fed, are willing to provide an extra monetary stimulus, which is a bearish factor for their local currencies. Jefferies sees the EURUSD falling to 1.14 as the dollar smile theory is popular again. It suggests the USD should strengthen at the final, third stage of the economic cycle because the US GDP outperforms the global peers.
Even though the next two quarters, according to the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Robert Kaplan, will be tough for the US, it should demonstrate robust growth in 2021. Unlike Europe, the USA does not impose a lockdown, and the restrictions introduced in the euro-area countries are costly. For example, each month of helping businesses and workers in Italy affected by COVID-19 will cost Rome €10 billion. If the restrictions last through March, it will cost €40 billion - €50 billion, or 3% of GDP. Furthermore, the PMIs and other indicators are falling, which is confirmed by a decrease in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany to the lowest level since April.

Dynamics of German economic sentiment index


Source: Bloomberg
The epidemiological situation in the euro area deteriorates. The ECB estimates that one in seven workers in Spain is associated with a business at risk of collapse, which compares with 8% of employees in Germany and France, and 10% - in Italy. The divergence in economic growth is in favor of the USA, which presses down the EURUSD.
And what about Biden’s victory and coronavirus vaccines? I believe the first driver has already worked out, which is evident from the euro drop on November 9. There is still much uncertainty around vaccines. Nobody can say how quickly they will be introduced and how long the immunity will last. The market needs time. The US stock indexes could be overvalued and will be unstable in the next few weeks. Besides, the positive news about COVID-19 vaccines will give Republicans a reason to delay or adopt a smaller fiscal stimulus than previously anticipated.

Monthly EURUSD trading plan

The euro should be strong in the long-term outlook, but it should weaken in the short term. Under such conditions, one could buy the EURUSD at the breakout of the resistance at 1.192. It will be relevant to sell the euro-dollar if the price breaks out the support at 1.179.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/dollar-smiles-again-forecast-as-of-11112020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Your Pre Market Brief for 07/16/2020

Pre Market Brief for Thursday July 16th 2020

You can subscribe to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief in this sub.
Updated as of 4:45 AM EST
-----------------------------------------------
Stock Futures:
Wednesday 07/15/2020 News and Markets Recap:
Thursday July 16th 2020 Economic Calendar (All times are in EST)
(JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY)
News Heading into Thursday July 16th 2020:
NOTE: I USUALLY (TRY TO) POST MANY OF THE MOST PROMISING, DRAMATIC, OR BAD NEWS OVERNIGHT STORIES THAT ARE LIKELY IMPORTANT TO THE MEMBERS OF THIS SUB AT THE TOP OF THIS LIST. PLEASE DO NOT YOLO THE VARIOUS TICKERS WITHOUT DOING RESEARCH! THE TIME STAMPS ON THESE MAY BE LATER THAN OTHERS ON THE WEB.
Upcoming Earnings:
Commodities:
COVID-19 Stats and News:
Macro Considerations:
Most Recent SEC Filings
Other
-----------------------------------------------
Morning Research and Trading Prep Tool Kit
Other Useful Resources:
The Ultimate Quick Resource For the Amateur Trader.
Subscribe to This Brief and the daily 4:00 AM Pre Market Brief on The Twitter Link Here . Alerts in the tweets will direct you to the daily brief in this sub
submitted by Cicero1982 to pennystocks [link] [comments]

Dollar is following its heart. Forecast as of 06.11.2020

Dollar is following its heart. Forecast as of 06.11.2020

Weekly US dollar fundamental analysis

Markets are just like people. They follow their hearts from time to time and forget about common sense. Investors like the idea of the division in the Congress and the Democratic president. In this scenario, the risks of tax hikes and high tech companies' strict regulation are much lower. This fact supports the stock indexes. The S&P 500 has been up by 1% and more during four consecutive trading sessions, which has been for the first time since 1982. In percentage terms, those days have been the best since early April. Markets consider Joe Biden to be a better president than Donald Trump, which allowed the yuan to gain back more than 50% of the losses faced during trade wars. The EURUSD tested the resistance at 1.186-1.187.
The growing chance of Biden’s victory encourages investors to spend the cash, which they have been accumulating ahead of the US presidential election. They are buying stocks and bonds. However, traders forget about other factors, such as the pandemic, uncertainty around the new fiscal stimulus, and Donald Trump’s willingness to reject the voting results. It looks like an attempt to give out desirable for valid. According to TD securities, there should not be any concerns about challenging the voting results, which has pushed the risky assets up and weakened the US dollar. DZ Bank believes that the greenback is falling because the voting results were reported earlier than some had expected. I do not think the above arguments to be strong.
I suppose traders are following their hearts. They invest the capitals in the securities as they worry not to miss the uptrend, which sends the S&P 500 up, fuels global risk appetite, and weakens the US dollar against a basket of currencies.

Dynamics of world's currencies versus the US dollar


Source: Financial Times
How long can it be going on? It depends. People in love are passionate during different periods. However, common sense should win sooner or later. The USA performs better than the euro area at the current stage of the economic cycle. The Fed is not willing to boost the monetary stimulus while the ECB tends to increase the current QE pace. According to Bloomberg’s leading indicators, the largest euro-area economies face a deeper drawdown in the PMIs because of the new lockdowns. The euro-area bond yields fall, which signals that the markets expect the ECB to take active measures in December.

Recovery of the world’s economies


Source: Bloomberg

Yields on the euro-area bonds


Source: Wall Street Journal

Weekly EURUSD trading plan

Let us be sensible during times of euphoria. Although the EURUSD has rebounded from the resistance at 1.186, the shorts entered in the zone seem vulnerable. It will be relevant to hold down the shorts if the pair goes below the support at 1.179. The S&P 500 rally could push the euro up above $1.188. The EURUSD medium-term outlook depends on whether the bulls can hold the price above 1.188.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/dollar-is-following-its-heart-forecast-as-of-06112020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Dollar's farewell performance. Review as of 30.10.2020

Dollar's farewell performance. Review as of 30.10.2020
What is good for the greenback is good for Trump. Does the current White House tenant have a chance to keep his chair?

Can the USD index's rise right before the election be a tribute to retiring Trump?

Those Americans are so strange: less than a week is left, and they still don't know who will be the president! Financial markets appear not to understand that either. The S&P 500's fall on the eve of the election indicates that the party in power's candidate will lose. The ratings indicate the same, but the US dollar is growing by leaps and bounds, while investors know: what is good for the greenback is good for Donald Trump. Can the Republican still have a chance? Or is it the USD's farewell performance for Trump?

https://preview.redd.it/05ez9n4828w51.jpg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eab79fbf5beec7a869becfef8bb8197116dc1b96
Even if we forget about the pandemic and trade wars, we'll see that a weak dollar has run all through Trump's presidency. The US' 45th president did his best to weaken the greenback, accusing China and Europe of manipulating their currencies, asking the Fed to cut rates and revive QE, and calling Jerome Powell the USA's main enemy.
In the end, things didn't go the way Trump wanted. The USD index was consolidating stably from the beginning of 2018 and up to May 2020. The strong economy helped the Fed raise rates several times, which other central banks couldn't afford. Tax cuts and deregulation became a boon for US companies and the whole stock market. That drove capital to the USA and strengthened the dollar. The trading war slowed global trading down, cut the euro's rate, and boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The greenback won all the same.

https://preview.redd.it/0p75min828w51.jpg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c833d6501df48d672fecb6b4f1340304394b0ff3
The US' 45th president will enter history books as a man who spoiled everything and as a man who first speaks and then thinks. His attempts to describe things better than they are make everybody smile and make him lose his authority. Trust is like paper: once creased, it's hard to smooth it out. Trump called the US' Q3 GDP growth "best in history" and said the year 2021 would be fantastic. However, Sleepy Biden's tax hike may "kill it all"! In fact, the US economy is now 3.5% worse than at the beginning of 2019. To get back to the previous figures, it needs to expand 15% in Q4, which is practically impossible. The current president is to be blamed for that too, as anti-pandemic measures weren't taken in good time. People say a clever man admits his faults, a cunning man blames others, and a stupid man is proud of them. Sounds true.
The key-note of Donald Trump's presidency was looking for a scapegoat. It was either China or Jerome Powell. The president's opponents would keep silent, understanding what consequences return criticism may have. Joe Biden won't keep silent. He says recovery is slowing down or even standing still, while the current high GDP value doesn't help millions of ordinary Americans who have lost their jobs.

https://preview.redd.it/os6pk6vm28w51.jpg?width=1164&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b04eff9aac40e66083524f9bf71674d8d98c0a03
What frightens me the most is that the new US president is neither Trump nor Biden...but Alzheimer!
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/chatty-forex/dollars-farewell-performance-review-as-of-30102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Dollar rocks on the waves. Analysis as of 28.10.2020

Dollar rocks on the waves. Analysis as of 28.10.2020

Weekly fundamental forecast for the dollar

The fear of coronavirus makes US stock market bulls retreat, which results in the US dollar’s consolidation. The number of new cases hits a record high in the USA. The US also reported record high hospitalization rates since 19 August, while France recorded the highest daily death toll since April. Emmanuel Macron is rumored to introduce another lockdown. That dropped the EURUSD quotes below the bottom of figure 18. The fall might have been deeper if not for expectations of the Democrats’ victory on 3 November.
According to 75% of 59 Reuters experts, a blue wave will be the best option for the US economy. It will help the fiscal stimulus package worth $1.8 trillion pass easily through Congress. Experts forecast that the US GDP will draw down 4% in 2020 and expand 3.7% and 2.9% in 2021-2022, respectively.

Reuters survey: What will support the US economy?

Source: Reuters.
A blue wave and post-election reduction in political uncertainty suggest that volatility may fall. That’s good news for S&P 500 and bad news for the greenback. The world’s largest financial manager BlackRock, which manages assets worth $7.3 trillion, thinks that the USD will be moderately weak for 1-3 years. The giant joints USD bulls, such as Goldman Sachs and UBS. Its position explains why hedge funds are selling out dollars in the forward market.

USD index and speculative positions in USD


Source: Bloomberg.
Uncertainty feeds the dollar. The markets seem to know already the presidential election’s results. The election factor excluded, the second wave may drop EURUSD quotes significantly. We may face the global economy’s double recession and another collapse of the S&P 500 and the greenback’s hike like it was in March. All the previous achievements will be canceled. Few are those who will remember the housing prices’ growth in the USA and the fifth consecutive month of increase in US durable goods orders.

US durable goods orders


Source: Bloomberg.
At first sight, the second pandemic wave must push the ECB to active actions as early as at the 29 October meeting. However, QE expansion won’t solve the COVID-19 issue. European banks stop crediting, fearing bad debt growth. So, Christine Lagarde’s main task is to calm down financial markets. A hint about an additional stimulus in December may help with that task.

Weekly trading plan for EURUSD

Thus, the pandemic returned to Forex’s forefront and consolidated the USD. However, I think it’s still possible to exploit the factor of Joe Biden’s victory in the short term. The EURUSD’s retracement from support at 1.1745 or return to 1.1815 and higher may be a signal to open long positions for impatient and adventurous traders.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/dollar-rocks-on-the-waves-analysis-as-of-28102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Euro follows rouble's example. Forecast for EURUSD for 21.10.2020

Euro follows rouble's example. Forecast for EURUSD for 21.10.2020
The European Commission’s first issuance of bonds as part of common debt and the capital flow to the European markets support EURUSD bulls. Let’s discuss that and make a trading plan.

Fundamental forecast for euro for today

Money controls the world. Everything seems to be against the euro: the second wave of COVID-19 in Europe, the S&P 500’s retracement, the worsening of the eurozone’s economy and the ECB’s hints at monetary policy softening. Nevertheless, the EURUSD jumps up like a scalded cat. If the reason is the Chinese yuan that has reached its 27-month high against the USD, then why aren’t the Australian and the NZ dollars consolidating? Australia’s and New Zealand’s shares in Chinese exports are higher than the eurozone’s one. As it turns out, it’s carry trade that should be blamed for the euro’s rise.
The story that occurred to the Russian rouble is still fresh in our minds: carry trade made it the best Forex performer in 2019. USDRUB’s fall looked paradoxical too. The state of the Russian economy left much to be desired, trade wars slowed down the main partners’ GDP and the Bank of Russia dropped the key rate to stimulate inflation. It’s the latter factor that made non-residents buy out governmental bonds in expectation of a rise in price. A similar story appears to be happening in Europe now.
The European Commission made the first issuance of 10-year and 20-year bonds as part of common debt on 20 October. The sale will finance the EU’s coronavirus-relief programs. The issuance volume amounted to €17 billion, and that’s just a beginning. The fund’s total volume is €750 billion. The mass media once presented those bonds as an alternative to treasuries. That was one of the factors in the EURUSD’s summer rally. I think it’s a mere flow of capital from the USA and developing countries to Europe. Buying EM bonds doesn’t seem to be a good idea amid global GDP’s potential slowdown in Q4. Europe’s periphery is another thing. Greek, Italian and Portuguese bonds look tasty. That lowers their spreads, in comparison with German ones, and points to smaller political risks. Hi, Russia-2019!

Yield spreads in European and German bonds


https://preview.redd.it/3p1xf8ol5gu51.jpg?width=560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8743f58ef1a5d2ca226c89acc76bf2234c6edb5c
Source: Wall Street Journal.
The more the ECB speaks about softening monetary policy, the more actively non-residents buy out European bonds, hoping for a price rise in the future. Obviously, German bonds have no room for growth, but the periphery still offers some earning opportunities. By the way, EURUSD’s 3-month swap spreads became negative in August. That means the Americans can make profit from both a rise in price in EU bonds and hedging.
The risk of a Blue Wave in the USA aggravates the situation. Joe Biden’s victory and the Democrats’ takeover of the Congress will unblock $4-5 trillion in fiscal aid. That will increase the volumes of Treasuries issuance and drop their price. Investors need an alternative urgently, and they find it in Europe.

Trading plan for EURUSD for today

How long will the euro continue growing, considering the growth isn’t fundamentally backed up? The rouble’s last year example says that everything is possible. The EURUSD’s quotes can be rising up to the ECB’s meeting on 29 October. Then a sale-out may follow. I recommend staying outside the market for a while.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/euro-follow-roubles-example-forecast-for-eurusd-for-21102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Most economical way of paying off student loan from overseas.

I searched through this subreddit and was surprised to see this hasn't been discussed at much length (or I am bad at searching).
I am living overseas in Canada and am being charged 3.5% interest on my student loan balance so I'd like to now start paying it off ASAP.
From what I can see there are a number of possible methods for paying off a student loan from overseas:
I put together a quick table summarizing my options, calculated at 07:00 EDT - 9/8/20. Some things to note:
Method Fee Send Amount (CAD) Recieve Amount (NZD) Notes
TransferWise $8.79 $891.60 $1,000.00
Western Union $0.00 $908.30 $1,000.00
Orbit Remit $0.00 --- --- CAD Not Available
XE $0.00 ? $1,000.00 Website Down
OFX $0.00 $887.67 $1,000.00
Credit Card $0.00 $896.33 $1,000.00
Credit Card $12.72 $909.05 $1,000.00 IRD Convenience fee included (1.42%)​
Direct Debit $0.00 $904.10 $1,000.00
I have a few questions:
Thanks!
submitted by middayjester to PersonalFinanceNZ [link] [comments]

Euro is rolling down. Forecast as of 16.10.2020

Euro is rolling down. Forecast as of 16.10.2020
The EURUSDis being corrected down amid several negative factors. They are growing political risks in the USA, the second pandemic wave in Europe, and the high risk of a no-deal Brexit. Let us discuss how bad the situation is and male up a EURUSD trading plan.

Weekly euro fundamental forecast

The EURUSD is down to its two-week low for several reasons. The US stock indexes have been trading down for three consecutive days; additional restrictions are introduced in Paris and London because of COVID-19. Besides, the EU officials announce that agreeing a "fair" new partnership with Britain was "worth every effort" but that the bloc would not compromise at any cost, which sends the pound down. The euro bulls are trying to consolidate the price at the bottom of figure 17, betting on China’s rebound and the ECB’s unwillingness to boost the monetary stimulus before December.
China has attracted $6 billion in the dollar-backed obligations, which repeats the record of 2019. According to the median forecast of the financial analysts polled by the Wall Street Journal, China’s GDP will grow by 5.3% Y-o-Y in the third-quarter report, which is much higher than in the April-June period (+3.2%) and close to the data recorded in 2019 (6.1%). The foreign demand for Chinese securities and the optimism about economic rebound allowed the yuan to compensate for most losses resulted from PBoC’s FX interventions. These facts support the euro.
The euro bulls are also encouraged by the ECB’s unwillingness to expand the monetary stimulus at its October meeting. Despite a sharp downturn of the euro-area economy amid the second pandemic waves, the ECB officials believe there is no need yet to ease the monetary policy. According to the head of the Bank of Holland, Klaas Knot, the regulator needs additional information. The ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos believes that since less than half of the money in the QE framework has been spent, there is no need to boost asset purchases.

ECB monetary stimulus spending


https://preview.redd.it/esnb9ht5dgt51.jpg?width=583&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd293647240a19596f885ecf8728551baa93c363
Source: Bloomberg
The euro is supported by the fact that China’s economy is growing, and the ECB is unlikely to take active measures. However, the dollar demand increases amid the political uncertainty in the US associated with a lower global risk appetite, which sets the EURUSD bulls back.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose by 898 thousand in the week ended October 10th, proving the US labor market needs an additional fiscal stimulus. A poor reading has sent the S&P 500 down and strengthened the greenback. Investors still bet on the Democrats’ victory on November 3. However, they are not willing to buy US stocks now, as they remember how Hillary Clinton, who was leading in the ratings, eventually lost to Donald Trump. If the US stock indices continue falling, the market situation will be similar to that of 2017. At that time, the ECB, discontent with the euro strengthening, used verbal interventions, and the pair failed to consolidate above 1.2.

Dynamics of EURUSD in 2017 and 2020


https://preview.redd.it/ck7knoc6dgt51.png?width=593&format=png&auto=webp&s=e04a6232ebb77be11ea89114fb412fd900e69381
Source: Nordea Markets

Weekly EURUSD trading plan

Remarkably, the EURUSD trend depends on the pound now. The UK is discontent with the EU's willingness to prepare for a no-deal Brexit can drop the GBPUSD deeper and send the euro towards $1.159-$1.162. I suggest one continue holding down the EURUSD shorts entered at level 1.178.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/euro-is-rolling-down-forecast-as-of-16102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

No, the British did not steal $45 trillion from India

This is an updated copy of the version on BadHistory. I plan to update it in accordance with the feedback I got.
I'd like to thank two people who will remain anonymous for helping me greatly with this post (you know who you are)
Three years ago a festschrift for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri was published by Shubhra Chakrabarti, a history teacher at the University of Delhi and Utsa Patnaik, a Marxist economist who taught at JNU until 2010.
One of the essays in the festschirt by Utsa Patnaik was an attempt to quantify the "drain" undergone by India during British Rule. Her conclusion? Britain robbed India of $45 trillion (or £9.2 trillion) during their 200 or so years of rule. This figure was immensely popular, and got republished in several major news outlets (here, here, here, here (they get the number wrong) and more recently here), got a mention from the Minister of External Affairs & returns 29,100 results on Google. There's also plenty of references to it here on Reddit.
Patnaik is not the first to calculate such a figure. Angus Maddison thought it was £100 million, Simon Digby said £1 billion, Javier Estaban said £40 million see Roy (2019). The huge range of figures should set off some alarm bells.
So how did Patnaik calculate this (shockingly large) figure? Well, even though I don't have access to the festschrift, she conveniently has written an article detailing her methodology here. Let's have a look.
How exactly did the British manage to diddle us and drain our wealth’ ? was the question that Basudev Chatterjee (later editor of a volume in the Towards Freedom project) had posed to me 50 years ago when we were fellow-students abroad.
This is begging the question.
After decades of research I find that using India’s commodity export surplus as the measure and applying an interest rate of 5%, the total drain from 1765 to 1938, compounded up to 2016, comes to £9.2 trillion; since $4.86 exchanged for £1 those days, this sum equals about $45 trillion.
This is completely meaningless. To understand why it's meaningless consider India's annual coconut exports. These are almost certainly a surplus but the surplus in trade is countered by the other country buying the product (indeed, by definition, trade surpluses contribute to the GDP of a nation which hardly plays into intuitive conceptualisations of drain).
Furthermore, Dewey (2019) critiques the 5% interest rate.
She [Patnaik] consistently adopts statistical assumptions (such as compound interest at a rate of 5% per annum over centuries) that exaggerate the magnitude of the drain
Moving on:
The exact mechanism of drain, or transfers from India to Britain was quite simple.
Convenient.
Drain theory possessed the political merit of being easily grasped by a nation of peasants. [...] No other idea could arouse people than the thought that they were being taxed so that others in far off lands might live in comfort. [...] It was, therefore, inevitable that the drain theory became the main staple of nationalist political agitation during the Gandhian era.
- Chandra et al. (1989)
The key factor was Britain’s control over our taxation revenues combined with control over India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its booming commodity export surplus with the world. Simply put, Britain used locally raised rupee tax revenues to pay for its net import of goods, a highly abnormal use of budgetary funds not seen in any sovereign country.
The issue with figures like these is they all make certain methodological assumptions that are impossible to prove. From Roy in Frankema et al. (2019):
the "drain theory" of Indian poverty cannot be tested with evidence, for several reasons. First, it rests on the counterfactual that any money saved on account of factor payments abroad would translate into domestic investment, which can never be proved. Second, it rests on "the primitive notion that all payments to foreigners are "drain"", that is, on the assumption that these payments did not contribute to domestic national income to the equivalent extent (Kumar 1985, 384; see also Chaudhuri 1968). Again, this cannot be tested. [...] Fourth, while British officers serving India did receive salaries that were many times that of the average income in India, a paper using cross-country data shows that colonies with better paid officers were governed better (Jones 2013).
Indeed, drain theory rests on some very weak foundations. This, in of itself, should be enough to dismiss any of the other figures that get thrown out. Nonetheless, I felt it would be a useful exercise to continue exploring Patnaik's take on drain theory.
The East India Company from 1765 onwards allocated every year up to one-third of Indian budgetary revenues net of collection costs, to buy a large volume of goods for direct import into Britain, far in excess of that country’s own needs.
So what's going on here? Well Roy (2019) explains it better:
Colonial India ran an export surplus, which, together with foreign investment, was used to pay for services purchased from Britain. These payments included interest on public debt, salaries, and pensions paid to government offcers who had come from Britain, salaries of managers and engineers, guaranteed profts paid to railway companies, and repatriated business profts. How do we know that any of these payments involved paying too much? The answer is we do not.
So what was really happening is the government was paying its workers for services (as well as guaranteeing profits - to promote investment - something the GoI does today Dalal (2019), and promoting business in India), and those workers were remitting some of that money to Britain. This is hardly a drain (unless, of course, Indian diaspora around the world today are "draining" it). In some cases, the remittances would take the form of goods (as described) see Chaudhuri (1983):
It is obvious that these debit items were financed through the export surplus on merchandise account, and later, when railway construction started on a large scale in India, through capital import. Until 1833 the East India Company followed a cumbersome method in remitting the annual home charges. This was to purchase export commodities in India out of revenue, which were then shipped to London and the proceeds from their sale handed over to the home treasury.
While Roy's earlier point argues better paid officers governed better, it is honestly impossible to say what part of the repatriated export surplus was a drain, and what was not. However calling all of it a drain is definitely misguided.
It's worth noting that Patnaik seems to make no attempt to quantify the benefits of the Raj either, Dewey (2019)'s 2nd criticism:
she [Patnaik] consistently ignores research that would tend to cut the economic impact of the drain down to size, such as the work on the sources of investment during the industrial revolution (which shows that industrialisation was financed by the ploughed-back profits of industrialists) or the costs of empire school (which stresses the high price of imperial defence)

Since tropical goods were highly prized in other cold temperate countries which could never produce them, in effect these free goods represented international purchasing power for Britain which kept a part for its own use and re-exported the balance to other countries in Europe and North America against import of food grains, iron and other goods in which it was deficient.
Re-exports necessarily adds value to goods when the goods are processed and when the goods are transported. The country with the largest navy at the time would presumably be in very good stead to do the latter.
The British historians Phyllis Deane and WA Cole presented an incorrect estimate of Britain’s 18th-19th century trade volume, by leaving out re-exports completely. I found that by 1800 Britain’s total trade was 62% higher than their estimate, on applying the correct definition of trade including re-exports, that is used by the United Nations and by all other international organisations.
While interesting, and certainly expected for such an old book, re-exporting necessarily adds value to goods.
When the Crown took over from the Company, from 1861 a clever system was developed under which all of India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its fast-rising commodity export surplus with the world, was intercepted and appropriated by Britain. As before up to a third of India’s rising budgetary revenues was not spent domestically but was set aside as ‘expenditure abroad’.
So, what does this mean? Britain appropriated all of India's earnings, and then spent a third of it aboard? Not exactly. She is describing home charges see Roy (2019) again:
Some of the expenditures on defense and administration were made in sterling and went out of the country. This payment by the government was known as the Home Charges. For example, interest payment on loans raised to finance construction of railways and irrigation works, pensions paid to retired officers, and purchase of stores, were payments in sterling. [...] almost all money that the government paid abroad corresponded to the purchase of a service from abroad. [...] The balance of payments system that emerged after 1800 was based on standard business principles. India bought something and paid for it. State revenues were used to pay for wages of people hired abroad, pay for interest on loans raised abroad, and repatriation of profits on foreign investments coming into India. These were legitimate market transactions.
Indeed, if paying for what you buy is drain, then several billions of us are drained every day.
The Secretary of State for India in Council, based in London, invited foreign importers to deposit with him the payment (in gold, sterling and their own currencies) for their net imports from India, and these gold and forex payments disappeared into the yawning maw of the SoS’s account in the Bank of England.
It should be noted that India having two heads was beneficial, and encouraged investment per Roy (2019):
The fact that the India Office in London managed a part of the monetary system made India creditworthy, stabilized its currency, and encouraged foreign savers to put money into railways and private enterprise in India. Current research on the history of public debt shows that stable and large colonies found it easier to borrow abroad than independent economies because the investors trusted the guarantee of the colonist powers.

Against India’s net foreign earnings he issued bills, termed Council bills (CBs), to an equivalent rupee value. The rate (between gold-linked sterling and silver rupee) at which the bills were issued, was carefully adjusted to the last farthing, so that foreigners would never find it more profitable to ship financial gold as payment directly to Indians, compared to using the CB route. Foreign importers then sent the CBs by post or by telegraph to the export houses in India, that via the exchange banks were paid out of the budgeted provision of sums under ‘expenditure abroad’, and the exporters in turn paid the producers (peasants and artisans) from whom they sourced the goods.
Sunderland (2013) argues CBs had two main roles (and neither were part of a grand plot to keep gold out of India):
Council bills had two roles. They firstly promoted trade by handing the IO some control of the rate of exchange and allowing the exchange banks to remit funds to India and to hedge currency transaction risks. They also enabled the Indian government to transfer cash to England for the payment of its UK commitments.

The United Nations (1962) historical data for 1900 to 1960, show that for three decades up to 1928 (and very likely earlier too) India posted the second highest merchandise export surplus in the world, with USA in the first position. Not only were Indians deprived of every bit of the enormous international purchasing power they had earned over 175 years, even its rupee equivalent was not issued to them since not even the colonial government was credited with any part of India’s net gold and forex earnings against which it could issue rupees. The sleight-of-hand employed, namely ‘paying’ producers out of their own taxes, made India’s export surplus unrequited and constituted a tax-financed drain to the metropolis, as had been correctly pointed out by those highly insightful classical writers, Dadabhai Naoroji and RCDutt.
It doesn't appear that others appreciate their insight Roy (2019):
K. N. Chaudhuri rightly calls such practice ‘confused’ economics ‘coloured by political feelings’.

Surplus budgets to effect such heavy tax-financed transfers had a severe employment–reducing and income-deflating effect: mass consumption was squeezed in order to release export goods. Per capita annual foodgrains absorption in British India declined from 210 kg. during the period 1904-09, to 157 kg. during 1937-41, and to only 137 kg by 1946.
Dewey (1978) points out reliability issues with Indian agriculutural statistics, however this calorie decline persists to this day. Some of it is attributed to less food being consumed at home Smith (2015), a lower infectious disease burden Duh & Spears (2016) and diversified diets Vankatesh et al. (2016).
If even a part of its enormous foreign earnings had been credited to it and not entirely siphoned off, India could have imported modern technology to build up an industrial structure as Japan was doing.
This is, unfortunately, impossible to prove. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication that India would've united (this is arguably more plausible than the given counterfactual1). Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been nuked in WW2, much like Japan. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been invaded by lizard people, much like Japan. The list continues eternally.
Nevertheless, I will charitably examine the given counterfactual anyway. Did pre-colonial India have industrial potential? The answer is a resounding no.
From Gupta (1980):
This article starts from the premise that while economic categories - the extent of commodity production, wage labour, monetarisation of the economy, etc - should be the basis for any analysis of the production relations of pre-British India, it is the nature of class struggles arising out of particular class alignments that finally gives the decisive twist to social change. Arguing on this premise, and analysing the available evidence, this article concludes that there was little potential for industrial revolution before the British arrived in India because, whatever might have been the character of economic categories of that period, the class relations had not sufficiently matured to develop productive forces and the required class struggle for a 'revolution' to take place.
A view echoed in Raychaudhuri (1983):
Yet all of this did not amount to an economic situation comparable to that of western Europe on the eve of the industrial revolution. Her technology - in agriculture as well as manufacturers - had by and large been stagnant for centuries. [...] The weakness of the Indian economy in the mid-eighteenth century, as compared to pre-industrial Europe was not simply a matter of technology and commercial and industrial organization. No scientific or geographical revolution formed part of the eighteenth-century Indian's historical experience. [...] Spontaneous movement towards industrialisation is unlikely in such a situation.
So now we've established India did not have industrial potential, was India similar to Japan just before the Meiji era? The answer, yet again, unsurprisingly, is no. Japan's economic situation was not comparable to India's, which allowed for Japan to finance its revolution. From Yasuba (1986):
All in all, the Japanese standard of living may not have been much below the English standard of living before industrialization, and both of them may have been considerably higher than the Indian standard of living. We can no longer say that Japan started from a pathetically low economic level and achieved a rapid or even "miraculous" economic growth. Japan's per capita income was almost as high as in Western Europe before industrialization, and it was possible for Japan to produce surplus in the Meiji Period to finance private and public capital formation.
The circumstances that led to Meiji Japan were extremely unique. See Tomlinson (1985):
Most modern comparisons between India and Japan, written by either Indianists or Japanese specialists, stress instead that industrial growth in Meiji Japan was the product of unique features that were not reproducible elsewhere. [...] it is undoubtably true that Japan's progress to industrialization has been unique and unrepeatable
So there you have it. Unsubstantiated statistical assumptions, calling any number you can a drain & assuming a counterfactual for no good reason gets you this $45 trillion number. Hopefully that's enough to bury it in the ground.
1. Several authors have affirmed that Indian identity is a colonial artefact. For example see Rajan 1969:
Perhaps the single greatest and most enduring impact of British rule over India is that it created an Indian nation, in the modern political sense. After centuries of rule by different dynasties overparts of the Indian sub-continent, and after about 100 years of British rule, Indians ceased to be merely Bengalis, Maharashtrians,or Tamils, linguistically and culturally.
or see Bryant 2000:
But then, it would be anachronistic to condemn eighteenth-century Indians, who served the British, as collaborators, when the notion of 'democratic' nationalism or of an Indian 'nation' did not then exist. [...] Indians who fought for them, differed from the Europeans in having a primary attachment to a non-belligerent religion, family and local chief, which was stronger than any identity they might have with a more remote prince or 'nation'.

Bibliography

Chakrabarti, Shubra & Patnaik, Utsa (2018). Agrarian and other histories: Essays for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri. Colombia University Press
Hickel, Jason (2018). How the British stole $45 trillion from India. The Guardian
Bhuyan, Aroonim & Sharma, Krishan (2019). The Great Loot: How the British stole $45 trillion from India. Indiapost
Monbiot, George (2020). English Landowners have stolen our rights. It is time to reclaim them. The Guardian
Tsjeng, Zing (2020). How Britain Stole $45 trillion from India with trains | Empires of Dirt. Vice
Chaudhury, Dipanjan (2019). British looted $45 trillion from India in today’s value: Jaishankar. The Economic Times
Roy, Tirthankar (2019). How British rule changed India's economy: The Paradox of the Raj. Palgrave Macmillan
Patnaik, Utsa (2018). How the British impoverished India. Hindustan Times
Tuovila, Alicia (2019). Expenditure method. Investopedia
Dewey, Clive (2019). Changing the guard: The dissolution of the nationalist–Marxist orthodoxy in the agrarian and agricultural history of India. The Indian Economic & Social History Review
Chandra, Bipan et al. (1989). India's Struggle for Independence, 1857-1947. Penguin Books
Frankema, Ewout & Booth, Anne (2019). Fiscal Capacity and the Colonial State in Asia and Africa, c. 1850-1960. Cambridge University Press
Dalal, Sucheta (2019). IL&FS Controversy: Centre is Paying Up on Sovereign Guarantees to ADB, KfW for Group's Loan. TheWire
Chaudhuri, K.N. (1983). X - Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments (1757–1947). Cambridge University Press
Sunderland, David (2013). Financing the Raj: The City of London and Colonial India, 1858-1940. Boydell Press
Dewey, Clive (1978). Patwari and Chaukidar: Subordinate officials and the reliability of India’s agricultural statistics. Athlone Press
Smith, Lisa (2015). The great Indian calorie debate: Explaining rising undernourishment during India’s rapid economic growth. Food Policy
Duh, Josephine & Spears, Dean (2016). Health and Hunger: Disease, Energy Needs, and the Indian Calorie Consumption Puzzle. The Economic Journal
Vankatesh, P. et al. (2016). Relationship between Food Production and Consumption Diversity in India – Empirical Evidences from Cross Section Analysis. Agricultural Economics Research Review
Gupta, Shaibal (1980). Potential of Industrial Revolution in Pre-British India. Economic and Political Weekly
Raychaudhuri, Tapan (1983). I - The mid-eighteenth-century background. Cambridge University Press
Yasuba, Yasukichi (1986). Standard of Living in Japan Before Industrialization: From what Level did Japan Begin? A Comment. The Journal of Economic History
Tomblinson, B.R. (1985). Writing History Sideways: Lessons for Indian Economic Historians from Meiji Japan. Cambridge University Press
Rajan, M.S. (1969). The Impact of British Rule in India. Journal of Contemporary History
Bryant, G.J. (2000). Indigenous Mercenaries in the Service of European Imperialists: The Case of the Sepoys in the Early British Indian Army, 1750-1800. War in History
submitted by GaslightEveryone to u/GaslightEveryone [link] [comments]

BTM FOUNDATION - is the new generation hybrid profitable investment fund

Modern economic environment, being forced by the total digitalization of all segments of business, challenges new investment approaches. Traditional evaluation models like DCF do not work. Businesses are being evaluated by very different approaches, such as real option evaluation approach, Merton formula, using stochastic Wiener processes towards evaluation. Sometimes we observe irrational investors’ behavior, when they evaluate perspectives of some businesses: shares of many new wave companies are flying tothemoon without any rational explanations of their business models. Due to traditional evaluation methods such companies must have negative shares price! What we must learn from this experience, is that our world has changed dramatically. Zero discount rates by the central banks and infinite liquidity lead to negative bank deposit rates: you need to pay money just to keep it safe! Due to asymmetric information on the financial markets, non professional investors usually make adverse selection: they invest their funds into big long run scam projects, pretending to be big fair businesses. Theranos, Nikola, SKYWAY, Softbank, ONECOIN, BitClub and many others are among Bernard Madoff like financial pyramids pretending to be serious businesses.
Due to informational hype all around, it is very hard to make a right choice of investment. New hype trains, like crypto, blockchain, artificial intelligence today looks like toy for geeks, but not for serious investors. Inflows of «stupid money» arrive to all those wealth redistribution factories and transform to lambos, yachts, cocaine and booze for hipsters, while investors just get useless shitcoins and dreams of a new «unicorn». Everyone wishes to catch up a new next APPLE or MicroSoft at an early stage. Same story happened several years ago when we were observing big previous bubble called «dotcom bubble». Only several companies survived, others sunk with tons of investors’ money. LETS STOP IT! INVESTORS MUST EARN! There are many money earning opportunities around, both overhyped, like crypto, blockchain, artificial intelligence, DEFI, as well as more conservative, but still very profitable, like intellectual garbage recycling or production of intellectual power supply units. Our mission at BTM fund is to connect smart money with profitable businesses, seeking for the blood - strategic funding from smart investors, for whom they gonna bring good stable profits!
BTM fund is the hybrid new generation investment fund, which is created by high level professionals with many years experience and proven track record on the stock and currency market, forex, cryptocurrency market and traditional investment business. BTM headquarters is located in London, also there are representative offices in Moscow and Kiev. Also we are planning to open offices in Dubai, Istanbul, New York, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Against the background of impending global economic crisis, which is well seasoned by the Major Brand of the Year 2019 - 2020 - COVID19, there is no safe heaven any more. All stock markets and financial indexes are on their tops, obviously we are observing big financial bubble, which can burst any time. Astronomical figures of the USA state debt and many other emerging economies lead to soft monetary policy: there is much cheap money, but no good investment opportunities, which can create added value. Flexible solutions of hybrid investment fund BTM provide its clients to manage their funds efficiently.
The key unique feature of our investment fund is instant diversification of investment programmes. «Let the profit leak and cut the losses» - this is the core principle of our investment strategy. Our professional financial managers do always have a finger on the pulse of modern trend in the investment environment. Today we are surfing on the hype waves of defi, crypto, blockchain, AI, and tomorrow we reallocate assets into top American stocks, gold, bonds, cash, or invest into high yielding real busin
#cryptofound #blockchainfound #btm #btmfoundation #btmfound #криптофонд #блокчейнфонд #пассивныйдоход #инвестиции #интернетзаработок
submitted by btmfoundation to u/btmfoundation [link] [comments]

Four reasons for buying yen. Forecast for 16.09.20

Four reasons for buying yen. Forecast for 16.09.20
Ahead of the Fed’s and Bank of Japan’s meetings, the Japanese yen is certainly worth discussing. Enjoy your popcorn and remember to check out the trading signals and trading plan for USDJPY and EURJPY for the nearest weeks at the end of this article.

Fundamental forecast for yen for today

Yoshihide Suga’s unconditional victory in the party race to become Japan’s next Prime Minister, the US-China trade war’s revival and the upcoming presidential elections in the USA redrew investors’ attention to the yen. USDJPY’s quotes have been falling for three days in a row and got close to the level of 105. Rumour has it that the Bank of Japan may get angry and intervene if that level is broken. The situation around EURJPY is interesting too.
If Shinzo Abe’s dismissal shocked the financial markets, the information about Yoshihide Suga’s appointment calmed them down. Let me remind you that Yoshihide Suga is Abe’s supporter and one of the authors of the “three arrows” strategy. The new Prime Minister isn’t going to put pressure on the BoJ in order to change monetary policy. He believes that there’s no need to raise taxes in the next 10 years, and that economic growth must improve the country’s financial state. He plans to shake up some sectors and bureaucratic mechanisms, but at the beginning of his term, he’ll need to recover GDP.
A clear political context is a boon for a national currency. The fact that Japan chose its PM, while the US has yet to choose its president, is beneficial to USDJPY bears. Still, their main trump is the divergence in the Fed’s and BoJ’s policies: the Fed’s response to recession was so fierce that the fall of the real US bond yields weakened the greenback and would probably continue weakening it.

Dynamics of US bond yields


Source: Wall Street Journal.
The yen is growing on the WTO’s ruling that US tariffs on Chinese imports are illegal. Beijing approved of that. Washington got angry. I doubt that the conflict will escalate before the elections. However, it’s obvious that the trade war is a long-lasting subject no matter who takes the US president’s chair. In 2019, global investors thought it was the main factor in market pricing. In 2020, the trade war dropped to the 4th line: the pandemic, November’s US elections and payment default risks have become the number one priority topics.
I think the trade war subject has been undeservedly neglected. During a pandemic, imports and exports usually reduce proportionally, and the trade balance remains unchanged. It’s true of Canada, Japan, Britain and Germany. Alas, the US foreign trade deficit is growing and the Chinese one is reducing. China’s industrial sectors are recovering faster, and Beijing may face another round of clashes after the US election.

Industrial production dynamics


Source: Bloomberg.

Weekly trading plan for USDJPY and EURJPY

Trading wars were favourable to the yen in 2018-2019, but its fans have other advantages this time too. I don’t think the BoJ will interfere if USDJPY breaks support at 105. So, we can open short positions. Opening shorts in EURJPY at the breakout of 124.6-124.65 looks interesting too.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/four-reasons-for-buying-yen-forecast-as-of-160920/ ?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

Fundamental Australian dollar forecast for today

Are the AUD/USD growth drivers exhausted?

In the second quarter, the Australian economy encountered the deepest downturn since the records started in 1959. Australia’s GDP contracted by 7% Q-o-Q and by 6.3% Y-o-Y. The RBA cut the interest rate to the record lo. The central bank has also bought AU$60 since March amid the QE program. The Aussie should have dropped in value, but the AUD/USD rate has been 32% up since the low hit in March. Doesn’t the major rule of the fundamental analysis “strong economy – strong currency” work here? Now, it perfectly works! The matter is that everything is relative in Forex!
A drop by 6.3% in Australian growth is nothing compared to the US GDP contraction by 32%. AUS$60 billion is very little compared with the trillions of dollars in the USA. In Australia, there are less than 30,000 of coronavirus cases, while there are more than six million of COVID-19 cases in the USA. Australia has managed the pandemic better than many other advanced economies, the economy is not critically weak, the RBA yield control policy allows it not to waste the monetary tools. Besides, China supports Australia’s foreign trade.

Dynamics of RBA interest rate and the Australian dollar exchange rate


Source: Bloomberg
China is the largest market for Australian exports. Although the diplomatic relations between the two countries are tense, after Canberra accused China of COVID-19 laboratory origins, the trade relations are good. Since the beginning of the year, Australia’s exports to China have increased by 75% compared to the same period in 2016, when the last official meeting of the countries’ leaders took place. The core of the China-Australia trade is iron ore. Over the past twelve months, China has imported 700 million tons of iron ore from Australia. It is twice as much as it was in 2010 when the diplomatic relations between Australia and China were much better.

Chinese imports from Australia


Source: Bloomberg
Therefore, the AUD/USD uptrend is strong for several reasons. Australia’s economy is stronger compared to others, China supports Australia’s foreign trade, the Fed’s monetary expansion is unprecedented, which weakens the US dollar. The matter is whether the major bullish drivers have exhausted? Will the Aussie continue its rally?
The analysts polled by Reuters believe the AUD/USD uptrend should slow down. The see the pair trading at 0.72 in one and three months. In six and twelve months, the exchange rate will be at 0.73 and 0.74, accordingly. These levels are close to the current one, which suggests a long consolidation period. In my opinion, it is still relevant to buy the Aussie. China has averted a new round of trade war with the US. The Australian government is working on the income tax reduction bill, which should support GDP growth. The greenback’s’ long-term outlook remains bearish. So, I recommend entering the AUD/USD longs if Australia’s job report for August is positive. The middle-term targets are at 0.75 and 0.763.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/audusd-forecast-aussie-wants-to-keep-the-party-going/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Money, Money, Money - Its always about the money!


Some economists (but not all economists) believe that the USD and the US economy is losing its integrity and may ultimately collapse.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/dollar-crash-swelling-deficit-deglobalization-stephen-roach-coronavirus-stimulus-recession-2020-6?r=US&IR=T
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-06-14/dollar-crash-how-will-it-unfold
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex-currencies/091416/what-would-it-take-us-dollar-collapse.asp
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/upshot/coronavirus-economic-crisis.html
https://www.ft.com/content/d5f05b5c-7db8-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dollar-crash-swelling-deficit-deglobalization-stephen-roach-coronavirus-stimulus-recession-2020-6-1029312845?op=1
https://medium.com/@baileybarney/will-the-us-dollar-collapse-23e707f19da0

Question: If accurate, what would replace the USD as the global reserve currency?
Answer: The IMF is ready with a replacement global reserve currency called SDR's!

  1. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/12/future-of-the-IMF-special-drawing-right-SDR-Ocampo.htm
" In this brave new world, is it time to rethink the SDR’s role?" (Ocampo)"The IMF should not pass up this opportunity" (Ocampo)
  1. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-special-drawing-right-global-currency-by-jose-antonio-ocampo-2019-04?barrier=accesspaylog
3.https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2017/ap24/imf-populism-nationalism-sdr-reserve-currency
4.https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/08/01/14/51/Special-Drawing-Right-SDR
5.https://www.theigc.org/project/the-viability-of-the-special-drawing-rights-as-an-international-reserve-asset/
6.https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.livemint.com/news/india/consensus-remains-elusive-among-g20-countries-on-fresh-sdr-allocation/amp-11595160202040.html
7.https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/43a67e06-bbeb-4bea-8939-bc29ca785b0e
8.https://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/27/business/27imf.html
9.https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/1998/09/24/one-world-one-money
10.https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cityam.com/world-reserve-currencies-is-the-us-dollars-days-numbered/amp/
11.https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2019/09/22/the-dollar-shouldnt-be-the-reserve-currency-but-neither-should-the-renminbi/

Will CBDC's be created at the same time as the SDR's? Will exchange rates of CBDC's be anchored to Quotas? Is the IMF a fund or potentially more like a Central Bank for the World? How did the IMF come about?
Central Bank Digital Coins - CBDC's
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2018/11/13/Casting-Light-on-Central-Bank-Digital-Currencies-46233

2.https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/05/13/sp051419-stablecoins-central-bank-digital-currencies-and-cross-border-payments
https://www.google.com/amp/s/techwireasia.com/amp/2020/03/central-banks-are-keen-on-digital-currencies-the-imf-is-backing-them/
3.
https://m.economictimes.com/markets/stocks/news/central-banks-wake-up-to-digital-currency-create-new-framework-with-wef/articleshow/73554517.cms
4.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/pawelkuskowski/2020/06/07/central-bank-digital-currencies-cbdc-a-crisis-recovery-tool-for-governments/5.
https://www.weforum.org/press/2020/01/central-banks-waking-up-to-digital-currency-create-new-framework-for-cbdc-deployment-with-world-economic-forum-177ca5d9ee/6.
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/41243/imf-officials-say-synthetic-cbdc-with-a-public-private-partnership-is-the-better-option7.
https://blockchain.news/insight/private-firms-can-boost-innovation-of-central-bank-digital-currencysays-imf-8.
https://coinidol.com/official-promote-digital-currency/9.
https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/top-imf-official-calls-for-synthetic-central-bank-digital-currencies-cbdc-development/10
  1. England:https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-13/bank-of-england-debating-digital-currency-creation-bailey-says
  2. USA:https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbrett/2020/03/23/new-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-introduces-digital-dollar-and-digital-dollar-wallets/amp/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/fed-digital-dollars-are-part-of-debate-over-coronavirus-stimulus-11585085518
  1. Australiahttps://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-rba-has-been-secretly-working-on-an-all-digital-version-of-the-australian-dollar-but-it-may-not-release-it-to-the-public-at-all-2020-1
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/submissions/payments-system/financial-and-regulatory-technology/
  1. Canadahttps://www.ledgerinsights.com/canada-exploring-consumer-cbdc/
  2. Swedenhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/cointelegraph.com/news/sweden-is-testing-its-new-central-bank-digital-currency/amp
  3. Norwayhttps://www.norges-bank.no/en/news-events/news-publications/News-items/2019/2019-06-27-cbdc/
  4. European Unionhttps://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/dutch-central-bank-wants-european-191627776.html
  5. Singaporehttps://chainbulletin.com/singapore-ready-to-explore-cbdc-together-with-china/amp/
  6. New Zealand:https://investmentnews.co.nz/investment-news/digital-central-bank-money-tipped-for-world-dominance/
  7. Chinahttps://www.ledgerinsights.com/china-central-bank-digital-currency-cbdc-renminbi-dolla

SideNote:

The World Economic Forum is planning a major event for January of 2021 that will focus on the "Great Reset" and the "4th Industrial Revolution".
https://www.weforum.org/great-reset/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/what-is-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/

Prince Charles wants to reset - Do you?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/03/pandemic-is-chance-to-reset-global-economy-says-prince-charles

What are they gonna reset?

TL:DR
!. Potential collapse of the US dollar.
  1. Replaced by IMF SDR's
3.Complimented by new CBDC's
  1. How is this connection the WEF "Great Reset..
Its time to read, learn and share!

Edit = Added TL:DR
submitted by andrew77mc to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Future Plan USA

Future Plan USA
Future Plan USA was established in 2018 with the goal of becoming one of the most effective investment funds for individuals and businesses. After 2 years of growth and development, experiencing financial fluctuations and currency crisis, Covid, Future Plan USA, LLC always stands stably and shows management capacity as well as investment efficiency. In addition, Future Plan USA, LLC also cooperates with major banks and venture capital funds to create breakthrough profits in the forex and crypto sector. Future Plan USA, LLC is the gathering place of the world's leading experts, not only experts in the financial sector but also experts in market research, real estate, technology and science. With our knowledge of finance and markets, we are committed to delivering incredible investment returns to our customers.

https://preview.redd.it/lten6fovl8m51.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=460d8c45982c2412e86426efdde61a800a007fa0
#investment #investment #investments
submitted by Dalkocryp to u/Dalkocryp [link] [comments]

EUR/USD forecast: Dollar is drifting

EUUSD forecast: Dollar is drifting

Fundamental US dollar forecast for today

Investors are staying aside ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech and the publications of the US important domestic data

People see what they want to see. The euro fans are so enthusiastic that they prefer to ignore the flaws of the single European currency. Is the US-China trade resumed? It is not a problem! In 2018-2019, the EUUSD pair was falling amid the trade conflict escalation. In 2020, however, it will be rising in this case because of the diversification of the PBOC FX reserves in favor of the euro. Are there talks about the expansion of European QE? It is not a problem! The ECB just can’t ease its monetary policy as much as the Fed. Is there the second pandemic wave in Europe? It doesn’t matter; the illness is asymptomatic; there won’t be another lockdown.
Optimism grows stronger. However, people with accompanying pathologies most often die from COVID-19. If we transfer this metaphor to the global economic sense, the accompanying pathology of the export-led euro-area economy is a downturn of the international trade. The process started because of trade wars, and the pandemic intensified it. According to the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, flows of goods across borders were 12.5% lower in the second quarter than in the first quarter of the year. It is the worst drop since records started in 2000. In the three months through June, the US exports contracted by 24.8%, the euro-area exports were 19.2% down. However, the US exports account for 20% of the country’s GDP; in the Eurozone, they exceed 40%. The euro-area exporters will have a difficult time, taking into account the euro’s rapid growth.
With this regard, the USA is in a better position, which allows the White House to repeat its mantra about the V-shaped economic recovery. People see what they want to see. Larry Kudlow, the chief economic advisor to Trump, ignores the problems of the US labor market and the drop in consumer confidence to the lowest level since 2014. He stresses the best new home sales over the past 14 years, industrial recovery, and the S&P500 record highs.

Dynamics of US consumer confidence



Source: Bloomberg

Dynamics of new home sales in USA



Source: Bloomberg
Unlike the White House, the Federal Reserve is more cautious. Jerome Powell has many times stressed the slow GDP recovery, the necessity to take control over OCVID-19, and fresh fiscal stimulus. The Republicans and Democrats can’t reach an agreement for a new financial aid package, and the Fed has to take the responsibility. So, investors anticipate Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole to get something meaningful.
According to MUFG Bank, Powell will focus on holding low interest rates, thereby weakening the greenback. Investors expect the Fed Chair to express the Fed’s willingness to “seek a moderate inflation overshoot” and reinforce its commitment to full employment. If so, there will be other evidence that the Fed is running out of monetary tools. If the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits falls while durable goods orders rise, the EUUSD bears can go ahead and try to break out the support levels of 1.178 and 1.1755. Otherwise, weak data and the Fed’s willingness to weaken the dollar can resume the greenback’s downtrend.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-dollar-is-drifting/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

EUR/USD forecast: Euro took up math

EUUSD forecast: Euro took up math

Fundamental Euro forecast for today

Open EUUSD position according to the euro-area PMI data

Financial markets base on mathematics. The divergence in the economic growth, having supported the EUUSD bulls during the summer, looked like an equation with one unknown. A better epidemiological situation in Europe than in the USA has almost convinced investors that the euro-area economy will be recovering faster than the US GDP. As a result, the rise of the major currency pair depended on the US economic data. A better economic performance, together with the Fed’s unwillingness to ease its monetary policy (which signals hidden optimism), sent the euro down to $1.18. However, once there appeared some negative, the euro bulls went ahead.
The US jobless claims are again back to a level of above 1 million, the manufacturing PMI data reported by the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed are weak. These reports show that the US economy is not revering as rapidly as the dollar buyers would like. I have many times stressed that the market turns out to be more fundamental amid the interest rates of the world’s leading central banks, which are close to zero. Investors are quite responsive to the reports on the US domestic data, especially since the US economy has been that unknown in the growth- gap equation.
The experts’ projections for the euro-area economy have been optimistic. In my opinion, too optimistic. Since the French-German stimulus plan was adopted, the euro risk reversals have been up by 60-80 basis points. The indicator has increased so rapidly only three times since the records began in 2006, and each time, the EUUSD was up by 5% and more in a few net months. There is an increased demand in the options market for call options with strikes of 1.22, 1.23, 1.25, and even 1.28.

Demand for euro-dollar options



Source: Bloomberg
Investors completely forgot that an equation with one unknown could transform at any moment into an equation with two unknowns. In Europe, the second wave of the pandemic unfolding. In Spain, about 4,800 new COVID-19 cases are registered per day, which is the highest since April; in France, the number of coronavirus cases has increased by 50% in a week, in Germany, the figure has exceeded 1,500, the highest since early May. Yes, European relative indicators still fall short of the US, where 150 cases for 1 million of the population (in problematic Spain, there are 110 cases for 1 million), Yes, most infected are young people. Hence, the number of hospitalizations and deaths is small, but who knows how the situation will develop further?
The difficulties will increase amid the expiration of programs to retain the non-working population in the labor force, which could result in a surge in unemployment and weigh on the consumer activity. The ECB stressed this problem at its July meeting, the central bank is willing to expand QE if necessary. It is a bearish factor for the EUUSD, but traders ignored it. The euphoria about the euro is still present and could end up bad for the euro buyers. The uncertainty about the euro-area economic recovery increases the risk that the euro will roll down to $1.18 if the euro-area PMI data for August are weak.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-euro-took-up-math/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

EUR/USD forecast: Dollar is out of fashion

EUUSD forecast: Dollar is out of fashion

Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today

USD shorts are now the most popular Forex trading strategy

The market is driven by emotions. If the EUUSD bulls are taken by the euphoria, no negative economic data will hold them back! The U.S. industrial production data have exceeded the forecasts, the U.S. retail sales are back at the pre-crisis levels. In the euro-area, however, the euro-area employment has dropped the most on record since the series begun in 1995. But the euro buyers are going ahead. Investors are confident that the euro-area economy will recover, and the U.S. growth will face a recession amid the coronavirus pandemic.
BofA Merrill Lynch notes that 36% of asset managers surveyed by the bank said the U.S. dollar sell positions are their favourite trading strategy, the highest in the history of research. This strategy is much ahead of all the others, its proportion increased by 6% from 30% in July, and, most likely, it will continue to gain popularity. BofA Merrill Lynch names, among other reasons, the loss of the greenback's position as a reserve currency. In fact, the countries that are under pressure from the USA are active participants in the process of de-dollarization. The proportion of the US currency in the trade settlements between Russia and China has been for the first time below 50%. In 2015, for example, the dollar’s share in the Russia-China trade settlements was more than 90%.

Dynamics of USD share in China-Russia trade settlements



Source: Wall Street Journal
Washington tries to affect Moscow using sanctions, but it uses much more sophisticated measures concerning Beijing. President Donald Trump ordered ByteDance to divest the U.S. operations of its app TikTok as the social media will cease to work in the USA in 90 days. A U.S. reprieve that had allowed some US companies to work with Huawei without a license now expires. The USA warns that the sanctions will target other China’s corporations, including Alibaba.
The US-China relations are getting tense, the parties even delayed the meeting planned for August 15 to assess the fulfilment of obligations under the trade agreement signed in January. The EUUSD bulls, however, are not concerned about the trade conflict escalation. They expect that amid such a scenario the euro’s share in the global FX reserves will increase. According to 40% of asset managers polled by BofA Merrill Lynch, this process will start already in 2021.
Forex seems to be taken away by euphoria. Hedge funds’ dollar longs versus the world eight major currencies have been in the red for the first time since May 2018. The main reason is said to be speculators’ growing interest in the euro.

Dynamics of speculative dollar positions and Treasury real yields



Source: Bloomberg
Of course, bulls’ enthusiasm used to quickly result in the capitulation in the past. However, under the current conditions, I mean the difficult epidemiological situation in the USA, Fed’s grim projections, and the upcoming presidential election in November, the US stock indexes are growing, and the EUUSD can well grow as well. Amid the current situation, it is important to check buyers’ willingness to continue the rally anyway. If the resistance at 1.188 is broken out, the pair can well continue rising.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/eurusd-forecast-dollar-is-out-of-fashion/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today

Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today

Fundamental U.S. dollar forecast for today

The major currency pair is about to start consolidation

Over the past four months, investors have been selling off the dollar, which seemed to have lost its profitability, against the world major currencies. The speculative net dollar shorts have reached the highest levels, and hedge funds have opened euro long positions the first time over the past two years. The market is confident that the EUUSD will be trading at 1.2 sooner or later. What if it is wrong? The dollar may still gain its strength back.
As the greenback shorts are close to the highest levels, there can well start a correction. Few large banks and investment companies believe that the USD uptrend can resume soon, however, the EUUSD correction down may be rather deep.

Dynamics of speculative positions and U.S. dollar


Source: Bloomberg
HSBC says the EUUSD bulls set the reasons for the further euro rally that have already worked out. Yes, the Fed lowered the interest rates more aggressively than the ECB, which sent the Treasury yield to the all-time lows. However, the ECB just couldn’t afford it. The ECB tool-kit is limited, as its interest rates are already close to zero. Yes, the Treasury yield has dropped, but will it go lower? Few believe that the FOMC will introduce negative interest rates. Even if it does, the US bond market rates are likely to have hit the bottom. The surge of the 10-year Treasury yield on August 10-11 has supported the US dollar, sending the gold price down.
The idea of the growth gap between the U.S. and the euro-area looks appealing. However, the number of new COVID-19 cases in the USA starts declining, while it is increasing in some European regions. Furthermore, the US positive domestic data signal that the second coronavirus wave shouldn’t be as harmful to the US economy as the first one. When the forecasts for the US GDP are grim, and the euro-area growth, on the contrary, is expected to accelerate, any mismatches to the forecasts can encourage investors to sell off the EUUSD.
Moreover, the greenback has been seasonally strong in the second half of the year also because of the capital repatriation to the USA. The USD grew on average by 3% in the quarter ahead of the seven previous presidential elections. So, there should be even less confidence that the euro uptrend will soon resume.

Seasonal factor in USD average monthly changes


Source: Bloomberg
I believe such factors as the diversification of the global FX reserves in the favor of the euro and inflow of portfolio investments into the euro-area markets should support the euro uptrend in the future. In the meanwhile, traders should be prepared for the EUUSD middle-term consolidation in the range of 1.158-1.188. The scenario to buy at the support levels of 1.166 and 1.163 is still relevant. However, the euro bulls should be patent and focus on day-trading with narrow targets for a while.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/fundamental-us-dollar-forecast-for-today/ ?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

A sharp escalation in tensions with the United States has stoked fears in China of a deepening financial war that could result in it being shut out of the global dollar system

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 78%. (I'm a bot)
SHANGHAI/BEIJING - A sharp escalation in tensions with the United States has stoked fears in China of a deepening financial war that could result in it being shut out of the global dollar system - a devastating prospect once considered far-fetched but now not impossible.
"Yuan internationalisation was a good-to-have. It's now becoming a must-have," said Shuang Ding, head of Greater China economic research at Standard Chartered and a former economist at the People's Bank of China.
Calling U.S. leaders "Extremists", Yu said a decoupling is not impossible, so China should make preparations.
Any move by Washington to cut China off from the dollar system or retaliation by Beijing to sell a big chunk of U.S. debt could roil financial markets and hurt the global economy, analysts said.
Fang Xinghai, a senior securities regulator, said China is vulnerable to U.S. sanctions and should make "Early" and "Real" preparations.
Shuang Ding of Standard Chartered said Beijing has no choice but to prepare for Washington's "Nuclear option" of kicking China out of the dollar system.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: China#1 U.S.#2 yuan#3 system#4 financial#5
Post found in /Conservative, /worldnews, /worldnews, /emojipresident, /wallstreetbets and /Forex.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

GBP/USD forecast: Pound caught tailwinds

GBP/USD forecast: Pound caught tailwinds

Fundamental Pound forecast for today

The GBP/USD rally results from the U.S. dollar weakness

Unsinkable. That is how I can describe the pound, which didn’t crash even amid the worst GDP drop and the strongest decline in unemployment since the previous economic crisis. After all, there is not any storm in the Forex market, is it? The sterling may just follow the trend based on the massive selloffs of the U.S. dollar. According to Societe Generale, the GBP/USD rally results from the greenback’s weakness, rather than from the UK economic data, which are rather weak. I must agree.
In the second quarter, the UK GDP contracted by 20.4%, which, compared to the USA (-10%), Germany (-10%), Italy (-12%), France (-14%), and Spain (-19%), looks like a real disaster. Partially, such serious economic losses resulted from the time factor. The UK economy was locked down on March 23, a week before most European countries, and reopened a few weeks later than the others.

Losses in GDP in the second quarter


Source: Wall Street Journal
In June, the UK economy grew by 8.7% M-o-M, which means it was 11.3% from the lows recorded in March. However, the current GDP is 17.2% than the pre-crisis levels, and the further recovery, according to the Bank of England, will depend on the employment. UK employment shrank by 220,000 during the lockdown, but the unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in the April-June period, which can be explained by state support. Rishi Sunak spent about £35 billion for this purpose, which saved about 9.5 million jobs. However, the financial aid program expires in October, and Boris Johnson’s government will face a serious dilemma.
If the fiscal stimulus is not extended, the unemployment rate will surge holding back the economic recovery. Besides, the U.K. government debt will increase, and the firms will have more symptoms associated with “zombies”. According to Prospect Magazine, the first option is more beneficial, as job destruction and job creation is a necessary part of a dynamic economy.

Dynamics of UK government debt

Source: Bloomberg
In my opinion, the GBP/USD remains stable amid the UK poor domestic data because investors expected the worst. The recession is deep, but the pound’s future will depend on how fast the UK economy is recovering. Extra problems can be created by Brexit, but the talks about the progress in the UK-US trade negotiations ease the negative.
The market is tending to sell the greenback amid its weakness. Republicans and Democrats may not reach an agreement on the fiscal stimulus until September. Besides, the weak economic data resulted from the surge in COVID-19 cases in the middle of summer will sooner or later press the USD down. As a result, the GBP/USD bulls can be supported by too grim forecasts for the UK economy. Any positive signs in the UK economic data will allow to add up to the GBP purchases opened at level 1.302 at the breakouts of the resistances at 1.3135 and 1.319.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/gbpusd-forecast-pound-caught-tailwinds/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

What is the Best Forex Broker?  Kyler & Kleveland Show ... How do bankers trade forex? Part 1: How the bankers ... Forex Bank Trader Levels - YouTube Best FX Trading Strategies (THE Top Strategy for Forex ... FOREX INDICATOR SIGNALS FROM BIG BANKS - VERY HIGH PROFIT ... BANKS Trade FOREX Off The NUMBERS - YouTube IS FOREX TRADING A SCAM? 🙄 - YouTube FOREX TRADER BUYS HIS DREAM CAR  FOREX TRADING 2020 ...

FOREX Bank är sedan 1965 Nordens marknadsledare på resevaluta. Sedan mitten av år 2003 har vi också ett växande utbud av andra banktjänster som lån, konton, kort och betalningstjänster. FOREX Bank AB, Box 2154, SE-103 14 Stockholm. Växel: 010 211 10 00. O rg. nr. 516406-0104. Ändra cookie-inställningar Since 1965, FOREX Bank is the market leader in the Nordics for travel exchange. We also offer money transfers globally with Western Union. We also offer money transfers globally with Western Union. FOREX Bank, Filial af FOREX Bank AB Sverige, Nørre Voldgade 90, 1358 København K, CVR. 27748562 USA - American dollar (USD) In the US, cash is used more than one might think. Often, minor expenses can't be paid with cards. Therefore, we recommend that you bring cash and cards when you travel. A credit card is often needed if you wish to rent a car. It is also recommended to have smaller denominations for tip. Make your exchange before you travel and be prepared when you arrive. No need ... When it comes to US forex brokers, Forex.com has to be an immediate consideration for opening your forex trading account in the USA. They are CFTC licensed and NFA regulated (#0339826) and provide a selection of flexible and accessible account types with low spreads starting from 0.2 pips, including their Direct Market Access account.This offers some of the most unbeatable spreads among any of ... Forex trading involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Full Disclosure. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. *Increasing leverage increases risk. GAIN Capital Group LLC (dba FOREX.com) 135 US Hwy 202/206 Bedminster NJ 07921, USA. GAIN Capital Group ... FOREX Bank has been the Nordic market leader in travel funds since 1965. In addition to travel funds, we also offer money transfer services provided by Western Union. FOREX Bank have in the Nordic countries about 100 stores, in central locations and at airports. FOREX Bank filial i Finland, PL 1139, FI-00101 Helsinki. Phone +358 9 417 1053 Org ... Since 1965, FOREX Bank is the market leader in the Nordics for travel exchange. Since 2003 we also offer other bank services such as loans, accounts, cards and payment services. FOREX Bank AB, Box 2154, SE-103 14 Stockholm. Phone 010 211 10 00 O rganisation number 516406-0104. Change cookie settings How much money do you need to start trading forex in the USA? The initial deposit required by traders varies from broker to broker. In order to open an account with IG US for example, one has to deposit $250. Forex.com, on the other hand, would let you trade live with them by investing $50 (or $100 with debit card and bank transfers), and Trading.com US- with just $5. What are the best payment ... Best US Forex Brokers for 2020. To find the best forex brokers in the USA, we created a list of all CFTC registered brokers, then ranked brokers by their Trust Score. Here is our list of the top forex brokers in the United States. IG - Best Overall Broker 2020; TD Ameritrade Forex - Excellent trading platform, US only; FOREX.com - Great ... Below you will find a list of Forex Brokers accepting US traders as clients. Due to the strict and complicated regulatory environment, it became quite a challenge for FX companies to operate in the US. To make it worse, thanks to the Dodd-Frank Act and the Memorandum of Understanding, many licensed Forex Brokers all over the world stopped accepting US clients. Still, there are some offshore ...

[index] [23775] [18566] [22782] [8992] [15166] [1292] [4049] [25914] [12432] [20317]

What is the Best Forex Broker? Kyler & Kleveland Show ...

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Up Next: How do bankers trade forex? Part 2: Capital Management https://youtu.be/NDIByRE-qLQ Tap into 28 Years of experience in the Forex Market and find out... More at exacttrading.com. When playing the major currency pairs do not forget that many of the large bank traders look to set up and or reverse their trades ... Is Forex Trading a Scam? http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/forex/forex-trading.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE THIS VIDEO SO WE CAN DO MORE! I sometimes get... 🚨🚨Trading Performance 🚨🚨 Improve Your Trading Performance at our Fundamental Trading Academy https://www.toptradersfx.com/academy (Our Academy is 1v1 ... #DailyPipTalk #LondonBreakoutTrading #ForexTradingTips #BankTradingLevels BANKS Trade FOREX Off The NUMBERS. Learn how to trade the London breakout strategy ... The best FX trading strategies out there aren't some magic indicator, some weird hack, or quick little tip. Stop looking for those, you're going to lose. Ins... Forex Trade With Us http://bit.ly/2EYIbgI Email: [email protected] Brokers I use https://bit.ly/35kgYkc P.S MY INSTAGRAM IS GONE NOW SO IF SOMEBODY W... FOREX INDICATOR SIGNALS FROM BIG BANKS +250PIPS PER TRADE! ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ https://www.altredo.com/ FOREX INDICATOR SIGNALS FROM BIG BANKS uses real ...

http://arab-binary-option.cconagonnisea.cf